Spot price, on the other hand, has been slightly slower. At $183.82 on May 13, SOL trades 5.2% below its Jan. 1 print, even though it increased 43.3% during the past month. The gap between such a high increase in derivatives positioning and a subdued YTD spot return shows the disparity between short-term positioning and deeper capital allocation. Despite the May rally, SOL’s price sits 29.8% under the all‑time high of $261.67 set on Nov. 7, 2021, showing a sizeable chunk of overhead supply yet to be absorbed.
The daily spot volume of 4.59 million SOL on May 13 stands 31% above the 30-day mean and 6% above the 90-day mean. This is enough to legitimize the latest price increase and show it’s not just riding on fumes from a recent euphoria. Still, the relationship between volume and price lacks tight alignment. Over the past quarter, the Pearson correlation between the two sits at −0.10, showing that big prints on CEXs don’t always translate into derivatives activity. Comparing CVD with spot volume yields a slightly positive 90‑day correlation of +0.08, indicating that futures participation is only weakly connected to cash‑side turnover.
The CVD‑price disconnect goes deeper. The 90‑day correlation between the two measures is −0.43, turning negative even as both their 30‑day moving averages push upward. The correlation between August 2020 and May 2025 is +0.18, so the current negative skew stands out. Such inversion often emerges when basis trades or hedging flows dominate: desks may lift futures to capture funding premia while hedging on spot or options, dampening the usual one‑to‑one path between derivatives and spot. That pattern explains how CVD can rise sharply without immediately pulling spot quotations to the same degree.
Weekly metrics reinforce the point. During the seven sessions ending May 13, taker CVD climbed by 36.9%, outpacing the 25.2% jump in spot price. In the same period, volume exceeded its 30‑day mean by 22%, confirming that real coins changed hands, yet price fell short of fully mirroring the appetite seen in derivatives. Behavior like this can either serve as a springboard for further price increases if sidelined holders enter the market, or a ceiling if futures buyers run out of counterparties willing to sell contracts at attractive premiums.
If spot buyers fill the gap, the derivatives‑led uptick could morph into a broader rally that chips away at the 30% distance to the record high. Should liquidity thin, however, the same leverage that fuelled the drive could aggravate any downtick as positions unwind. The negative correlation between CVD and price underlines that futures desks are already comfortable trading against prevailing spot moves; a quick reversal in funding or basis could see that stance flip again.
For now, order books carry a moderate load rather than the blow‑off extremes often seen near tops. Volume’s 31% premium to its recent average is brisk but not explosive, funding rates on major venues sit within one‑month norms, and open interest in SOL perpetuals holds steady relative to market capitalisation. Combined with the multi‑week CVD climb, this shows a market where directional conviction rises but has not yet spilled into outright fervour.
The next tell will come from either a break above the psychological $200 level with volume remaining elevated, or a swift fade in taker CVD that snaps the 83‑day streak.
