The monthly high was followed by a series of rejections near that same threshold, with spot unable to close convincingly above $178 on multiple occasions. The rejection near $180 also aligned with a downturn in momentum indicators. The 14-day RSI, which crossed into overbought territory in late May, reversed course and settled around 46 by mid-June. This drop, combined with flattening short-term moving averages, showed momentum cooling.
Technically, the 10-day and 20-day SMAs converged at approximately $153.20. Their slopes flattened by mid-June, indicating the beginning of a consolidation range. Solana’s price then moved within a $144-$155 band for much of the second half of the period. While the broader market also paused, the lack of follow-through above $180 undercut Solana’s relative strength and left traders cautious on direction.
Price volatility remained elevated throughout. Spot prices posted an average intraday swing of $8.88, roughly 5% of daily value. That level of realized volatility rivals March highs and contributed to outsized slippage on both sides of the tape. Annualized volatility for spot stood at 57.7%, while futures pushed toward 81.8%. The divergence shows a growing gap between passive spot flows and leveraged derivatives positioning, which intensified during sharp moves.
CME Solana futures mirrored spot behavior across most of the period. Futures peaked at $179.55 on May 23 and fell to a low of $145.65 on June 12. The basis remained relatively stable, averaging –0.26%, suggesting a slight discount during most of the month. However, by June 18, the basis flipped to a mild contango with a 0.49% premium, signaling a renewed interest in carry trades and a return of marginal long-side demand from traders seeking to arbitrage the spread.
Institutional interest in Solana has grown steadily over the past quarter, and this trend remained visible despite the June correction. The clearest evidence of this came through Solana’s futures market. The notional value of open interest across exchanges reached approximately $7.4 billion in mid-June, the highest level in over two years. Much of this activity has concentrated on CME’s newly listed Solana contracts, suggesting rising participation from hedge funds, trading firms, and institutional desks. Unlike offshore derivatives platforms, CME’s contracts settle in cash and serve as a regulated avenue for funds seeking Solana exposure without directly holding the token.
