Hayes points out that after Circle’s shares jumped by more than 80% since listing, hitting just under $165 on June 16, everyone will want a piece of the action. He expects a wave of “Circle copycats” to emerge.
These firms will use clever presentations and big promises to grab attention. Investors may pile in, driving prices even higher at first.
Hayes argues that many of these new public firms are already overvalued. They’ll offer high rates to attract depositors or spend huge sums on marketing. At some point, the balance sheets won’t add up. That’s when the bubble bursts and stocks plunge.
He also cautions against betting on a sudden collapse by shorting. He says pro-crypto sentiment in the US and the mania narrative will keep prices buoyant, at least for a while.
Hayes identifies only three clear paths to reach customers: crypto exchanges, big social media platforms, and established banks. Without deals in place, newcomers will struggle. Exchanges will demand hefty listing fees.
Chainlink co‑founder Sergey Nazarov echoed that view on Tuesday, noting that clear rules will encourage even more issuers around the world. Yet Hayes warns that easier regulation won’t solve the core problem of finding real users.
According to Hayes, Circle itself isn’t immune. He calls its current valuation “insane,” noting the company gives up half of its interest income to Coinbase for custody services. Still, he believes CRCL shares will keep levitating until a true market correction sets in.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
