According to Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, there is a high likelihood the US will formally announce an SBR by the end of this year — a view that some market participants say is too optimistic.
i still think there’s a strong chance the U.S. government will announce this year that it has formed the strategic bitcoin reserve (SBR) and is formally holding BTC as a strategic asset
market seems to be completely underpricing the likelihood of such an announcement
Based on reports, the administration’s crypto liaison confirmed interest remains in moving forward, even if the topic received only a brief mention in a recent policy paper.
yes, i mean the U.S. government announcing, not bessent’s offhand comment on tv
On Aug. 6, Bitcoin Indonesia said it had met with officials to talk about how a state-level strategy could boost the economy. And on Wednesday, Kyrgyzstan advanced a bill aimed at creating a country-level crypto reserve — a signal that other governments are not standing still.
Samson Mow, founder of Jan3, has urged faster action, warning in June that delays risk letting other nations secure large Bitcoin holdings first.
Dave Weisburger, former chairman of CoinRoutes, said that it is more likely any formal US holding will take place in 2026.
He argued that an administration wanting to build a position would probably avoid public disclosure until an initial accumulation target is reached.
Some traders would see such a move as a bullish shock; others would worry about new rules, taxes, or custody frameworks that could follow.
The secrecy around any acquisition plan also complicates market reads: if accumulation is underway but hidden, prices could react strongly when the government goes public.
Beyond timing and market effects, the story has a geopolitical edge. Countries in Central and Southeast Asia are actively discussing national crypto reserves, and officials in Jakarta have shown interest in using Bitcoin-related strategy as an economic tool.
That international activity increases the political stakes for Washington. For now, the picture is mixed: executive orders and bills point to progress, while public comments from officials and analysts show real disagreement over when — or if — the US will formalize holdings.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
