The near-term hinge, in other words, is binary. A shutdown that lingers keeps risk pared back; a deal, by contrast, opens the door to what the thread characterizes as a quick relief move. The author’s base case on timing—“estimated to be resolved sometime between the end of next week and Thanksgiving”—extends that window into the back half of November. That framing matters for crypto because the same roadmap argues the December calendar is stacked with policy and flow headwinds that could complicate any rally that begins late this month.
That caveat leads into a second unusual feature of this year-end: a potential data vacuum due to the ongoing US government shutdown. “Omitted all upcoming economic data releases from the list due to uncertainty on release dates,” the thread notes, citing the shutdown’s impact on statistical agencies. It adds, “Will likely see no official economic data in November, and data resuming in December, with payrolls (jobs) on Dec//5 (a crucial data point for the FOMC decision).” An extended blackout followed by a compressed burst of releases would increase event risk around any single print, especially nonfarm payrolls, and could amplify volatility across risk assets, crypto included.
Tax-based flows complicate that picture for crypto assets specifically. The thread characterizes “Tax loss selling (crypto only)” as “bearish; all December, mainly last two weeks,” reasoning that crypto’s relative underperformance versus equities this year leaves room for harvesting that is “of particular importance given relative stocks-crypto performance.”
Seasonal pressure late in the month would be consistent with prior years in which crypto saw localized December-to-January pivots as selling abated and re-risking emerged with the calendar reset.
Another macro wildcard sits outside monetary policy. The author highlights the “Supreme Court’s decision on Tariffs: most likely sometime in December, otherwise January, timing fluid,” and frames market odds as pointing to a ruling “against Trump, which would be extremely bullish IMO, although some argue such a ruling would be bearish.” The point is less about a one-way trade and more about the breadth of plausible paths: depending on the ruling and how forward-looking positioning is into the event, crypto could either extend a policy-led risk-on move or face a whipsaw if the outcome collides with consensus.
Beyond 2025’s final weeks, the roadmap sketches a decidedly constructive macro backdrop next year, at least at the start. “2026: very bullish first half of the year, driven by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies.” For crypto, that forward anchor matters because it underwrites the notion that any December drawdowns from tax effects or a hawkish-leaning FOMC could be transient if the policy impulse turns easier into 2026.
Tactically, the thread even proposes a short-term trade expression around the shutdown endgame: “For BTC, I think you can probably sell a spike into the shutdown resolution around $108k-$109k (~20 DMA) then enjoy a king’s holiday and come back in by year end.”
At press time, the total crypto market stood at $3.36 trillion.
