Rumors of insider trading dominated social media throughout the weekend as one wallet banked generational wealth in a single trade.
The market recovered on Monday as crypto derivatives reset and spot demand stabilized, while social media advanced theories around a large Bitcoin short that was opened just before the announcement and tied it to a member of the Trump family.
Crypto liquidations over the 24 hours around the drop clustered around $19 billion, with upwards of 1.6 million accounts liquidated.
The rumor set focuses on a large Bitcoin short opened ahead of the tariff post and, in some versions, attributes the trade to Barron Trump. As of publication, there is no public, verifiable exchange or on-chain evidence linking any Trump family member to such a position.
The precision timing of these moves, executed just before President Trump’s post, sparked intense speculation in the crypto community about possible insider knowledge, but direct evidence supporting such claims has not surfaced.
Regardless, the profit tally for this trade on Friday stands at roughly $160 – $200M, representing one of the largest and fastest windfalls in recent crypto trading history.
The account posted, “The fund isn’t mine — it’s my clients’. We run nodes and provide in-house insights for them.” He then replied to Binance Co-Founder Changpeng Zhao, saying,
“Thanks for sharing my personal and private information. To clarify, I have no connection with the Trump family or @DonaldJTrumpJr — this isn’t insider trading.”
Some X users are not convinced.
Insider trading in the United States turns on trading on material, nonpublic information obtained or used in breach of a duty.
Bitcoin is treated as a commodity for regulatory purposes, so the Commodity Futures Trading Commission would have jurisdiction over Bitcoin derivatives. The Securities and Exchange Commission has pursued insider-trading cases where the asset at issue is a security.
That mix means any charge set would hinge on proof of access to nonpublic policy timing, evidence that trading occurred on the basis of that information, and records that tie the positions to the individuals in question.
Tariff signaling, leverage rebuilding, and exchange-linked liquidity will likely continue to shape price action and flows over the next two to six weeks.
A base case assumes the White House keeps the 100% tariff plan on track for Nov. 1 with intermittent rhetorical shifts, while China’s policy response evolves.
An escalation case assumes clear retaliatory steps or added U.S. trade measures, while a de-escalation case assumes targeted carve-outs or delay signals. Open interest and funding rates typically rebuild at a slower pace after large liquidation events, and that process can produce choppy ranges while market makers normalize inventories.
Looking into prior episodes, the days after record liquidation clusters often show a second test of stress zones if equities soften and the dollar firms. Exchange stablecoin flows also merit monitoring since net deposits can front-run re-risking and elevate USDT transfers to Binance during stabilization.
To ground the discussion in scenario ranges, the following table frames plausible price corridors into early November, anchored to Monday’s European morning spot level.
The liquidations math and the weekend tape reduce the need for a manipulative narrative to explain the move.
The $19 billion liquidation print is among the largest single-day events reported for crypto, and Bitcoin’s share alone, paired with a downdraft in related assets, is consistent with a multi-venue, cross-position flush, with recovery into Monday.
If a single short catalyzed the path, it would still need to be reconciled with observed funding and order book behavior across multiple exchanges, the timing of the tariff post, and the behavior of correlated risk assets.
The cross-market context matters here, because tariff shocks feed through supply chain expectations, rare-earth and tech inputs, and large-cap equity factor moves, and crypto has tended to trade with high beta equity baskets on such days.
If investigators were to pursue the rumor, the core questions would be whether any nonpublic information about the tariff timing and content was accessed in advance, whether a duty of confidentiality was breached, whether trading occurred on the basis of that information, and whether records connect that trading to the individuals named.
For readers tracking near-term market structure, a compact set of indicators can translate policy noise into positioning signals.
First, open interest across Bitcoin perpetuals relative to seven-day averages, combined with funding rate direction, helps identify whether fresh leverage is chasing rebounds or whether the market is still de-risking. Live panels for these figures are available on CoinGlass.
Second, exchange stablecoin balances and large net deposits, especially into Binance and CME basis moves, can precede periods when spot leads and derivatives catch up.
Third, equity futures and dollar indexes around tariff headlines can gate crypto ranges intraday.
The price path into Nov. 1 will be set by tariff guidance, equity and dollar conditions, and whether leverage rebuilds faster than spot flows warrant.
