According to reports, Lee says the market’s recent weakness is tied to the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to cut interest rates, while Schiff points to gold’s recent rally as a warning sign for Bitcoin.
In an X post, the gold bug Schiff highlighted that the yellow metal rose 10% over the last two months and reached a new high of $3,620.
Bitcoin, he added, has not followed gold’s lead, and that gap worries him.
Tom Lee remains optimistic. He has argued that the influx of institutional investors gives Bitcoin new “counter-cyclical characteristics,” and that bigger players could push prices much higher over time.
The same markets place roughly an 8% chance on Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 by the end of 2025. Those odds suggest bettors are split and that headline targets are being treated with skepticism.
Schiff has also pointed to longer-term measurements. He noted that Bitcoin is down 16% against gold over the past four years, even though the cryptocurrency has posted strong gains versus the US dollar in that span.
He warned that when “more air” comes out of the Bitcoin bubble, the four-year returns may look weak. The idea that the old four-year cycle tied to halvings may be fading was raised by other analysts in recent commentary, and that debate is ongoing.
Schiff went further by saying Bitcoin is more likely to sink below $100k than to reach $200k, putting a cautious spin on the outlook.
This view makes clear where Schiff stands: he treats gold’s rally as a forward signal about future policy and believes Bitcoin’s lag is not a short-term quirk but a structural concern.
Lee’s counter is that institutional flows could change how Bitcoin moves over time.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
