Bitcoin may be stuck in limbo until October, according to crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz, who delivered a sobering assessment of the current market setup during his August 3 video analysis. The veteran trader described Bitcoin’s technicals and seasonal context as fundamentally uninviting, cautioning that “there’s nothing to do” until a more compelling risk-reward profile emerges—likely not before Q4.
Olszewicz underscored the seasonal softness of Q3 for both equities and crypto, particularly emphasizing that historically, August and September are low-activity months. “Wake me up when September ends,” he quipped, reinforcing that traders should expect little from the market until October—a month historically associated with strong performance. “You do not want to miss October, even if October is negative 80%. This is about probabilities.”
However, a more immediate concern lies in the potential for a bearish TK cross on the Ichimoku Cloud, which would trigger a sell signal in his system. “It’s a Pavlovian response. Bearish TK cross, you close your longs,” he said bluntly. “If we revisit 100 at this point, you’re going to get a lot of people talking about end-of-cycle stuff.”
The Commitment of Traders (COT) data from CME further amplifies the caution. “Commercials have dropped off a cliff,” Olszewicz warned. “Not something you want to see if you’re bullish.” The data suggests a sharp reduction in institutional positioning on the long side, adding another layer of headwind for the BTC price.
For traders looking to re-enter the market, he identified the $117K–$120K range as a potential re-entry zone if BTC can reclaim that area within the next two weeks. “It’s up to the bulls to hold this just flat for two weeks,” he said. “It shouldn’t be that hard to do if there are buyers in this market.”
But until then, he remains on the sidelines: “There’s just nothing to do. It’s in no man’s land at the moment.”
With Bitcoin in a technical holding pattern, negative flows, weak seasonality, and risk-off signals from legacy markets, Olszewicz made it clear that forcing trades in this environment could prove costly. His advice? Stay patient, stay liquid, and watch October.
At press time, BTC traded at $114,517.
