Visible buying from spot bitcoin ETPs and corporates has not translated into decisive upside, leaving traders to ask a blunt question: who is supplying the market?
Kuiper points to a simple but powerful on-chain gauge: the percentage of outstanding bitcoin that has not moved for at least one year. Glassnode’s “Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago” rises in bear markets as coins age in place and investors sit on unrealized losses, then typically falls sharply when bull markets let those same investors exit into strength.
When October’s typical strength did not materialize and year-end approached, “long-term holders are looking to make year-end tax and positional changes, calling it a day with the gains they already have.”
On-chain analyst Julio Moreno of CryptoQuant added another layer by reframing the same dynamic as “1-year inactive supply drawdown” in percentage points of total supply. “Here’s another way to visualize this,” he replied to Kuiper, “by looking at the 1-year inactive supply drawdown in terms of % of total Bitcoin supply.”
Moreno quantified the last three major cycles. In 2017–2018, 1-year inactive supply declined by about 20 percentage points of total supply. In the 2021 cycle, the drawdown was around 10 percentage points. In the 2024–2025 period so far, the decline is again roughly 10 percentage points. The CryptoQuant chart, which uses an inverted scale, renders that as a purple wave that rises as more long-dormant coins are spent or reallocated.
This means that long-term holders have already released a volume of supply comparable to the 2021 cycle, even if it is still well below the 2017–2018 peak. What differs is the tempo. Rather than a short burst of profit-taking at the top, the market has absorbed roughly a 10-percentage-point reduction in inactive supply over a longer, choppier price path.
Kuiper welcomed the alternative visualization, replying simply: “Great chart!” He also made clear what he will be monitoring from here. “I will be watching this slope along with some other metrics to gauge seller exhaustion,” he said. For now, he argues that “the positive fundamental developments and lackluster price action continue to diverge.”
At press time, BTC traded at $102,609.
