Spot Bitcoin ETFs opened the week with -$186.5 million in net redemptions on Monday, Nov. 3, stretching a four-session drain to roughly -$1.34 billion since Oct. 29. This run shows how quickly flows can swing when a single mega-issuer turns into a seller.
When analyzing ETF flows, it is essential to remember that flows don’t equal price, and daily prints don’t always reflect trends. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows comprise net creations and redemptions reported by issuers and compiled by independent trackers, such as Farside. They’re certainly among the cleanest real-time signals of US demand for wrapped BTC exposure. Still, they can also be distorted by issuer-specific activities, such as AP inventory management, creation basket timing, or even a single fund’s model-driven rebalancing.
That’s why Monday’s IBIT outflows can move the total even when others are flat. And because updates are typically released in the evenings US time, the flow data can lag or bunch, creating streaks that could be a result of reporting cadence rather than sentiment change.
That’s why looking at multi-day sums and issuer dispersion is the more reliable tell of trends in the ETF market.
The approximately $1.34 billion outflow we’ve seen over the past four trading days is undoubtedly substantial. However, it follows months of historically large two-way prints and sits alongside large inflows into non-BTC segments, such as Solana ETFs. Looking through the macro lens, this pattern resembles tactical de-risking into policy and price uncertainty rather than large structural outflows.
In the coming days and weeks, the market will be watching to see whether IBIT’s selling pressure persists or shifts to other issuers. A significant development will also be whether the SOL inflow streak fades as the new product settles. Any break in the daily outflow streak will also signal stabilization.
If flows stabilize or turn green while Bitcoin maintains support at $110,000, we can safely say that last week’s outflow streak was positioning noise rather than a turn in demand. However, another week of $1 billion or more in outflows, concentrated in one or two issuers, would indicate that large allocators are actively reducing risk in their flagship funds. Either way, the current story is dispersion and rotation, with no inevitable capitulation yet.
