Bitcoin pushed sharply higher in early European trade on Monday, November 10, 2025, briefly reclaiming the $106,000 handle after a volatile weekend. The move arrives as a cluster of macro-liquidity signals and policy headlines flips risk appetite at the margins.
The most concrete development is the Fed’s communication pivot on reserves and the balance sheet. New York Fed President John Williams signaled last week that, with reserves sliding from “abundant” toward merely “ample,” the central bank may soon need to resume asset purchases—not for stimulus, but to maintain smooth money-market functioning as the Fed halts quantitative tightening on December 1 and begins fully reinvesting maturing Treasuries.
Washington politics, paradoxically, is the other tailwind. Prediction markets now handicap material odds that the record-long US government shutdown will be resolved in mid-November. Polymarket shows odds for 87% for a resolution between November 12–15 range.
Why does that matter for Bitcoin? Because when a shutdown ends, Treasury spending typically picks up and, all else equal, cash flows out of the TGA at the Fed into the banking system, raising bank reserves. That mechanical linkage—TGA down, reserves up—has been well documented. A reserve boost, especially with the Fed no longer draining liquidity via QT, is the kind of macro backdrop that has historically coincided with stronger crypto bid.
Yann Allemann and Jan Happel, the co-founders of the blockchain data and intelligence platform Glassnode(@Negentropic_) tied it back to the TGA: “Deal for gov shutdown on the horizon. This will give the Treasury a green light to start draining the TGA. This is a major ingredient for the final up leg to play out.” Joe Consorti (@JoeConsorti) added a retail-flow callback: “Welcome back, helicopter money… had you invested your $1,200 stimulus check in Bitcoin, it’d now be worth $18,607. Don’t mess this up.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $106,265.
