The report, authored by Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, frames Bitcoin not as an opportunistic play but as a maturing asset that is increasingly being considered a core portfolio component.
For the first time in 2025, professional investors have begun requesting that Bitcoin be included in these frameworks, with Bitwise reporting 12 such inquiries this year compared to none in previous years.
“The fact that they’re now asking for long-term capital market assumptions means that they’ve shifted their view: It’s no longer a one-off for the fringes of the portfolio; it’s starting to be considered for the core,” Hougan said in the memo.
He attributed this change to greater accessibility through regulated ETFs and approval by large account platforms managing trillions in client assets.
The launch of spot ETFs in January 2024 created a new on-ramp for traditional allocators, and subsequent approvals across national platforms have since accelerated the process. Hougan described the transition as occurring “brick by brick,” as Bitcoin gains a foothold in professional investment strategies.
Looking ahead, Bitwise forecasts that BTC will not only outperform but stand apart from traditional assets in terms of expected returns. The firm projects a 28.3% CAGR over the next decade, significantly higher than the long-term expectations placed on equities, bonds, and private credit by leading Wall Street institutions.
The implications of such a forecast extend beyond performance projections. A consistent inclusion of BTC in LTCMAs could formalize its role in balanced portfolios, shaping how pensions, endowments, and wealth managers approach diversification.
Hougan cautioned that while risks remain, the framework is designed to give professional allocators a basis for strategic decision-making rather than a speculative outlook.
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