The current bounce back above $1.9 might be looking like a reversal but is actually a subwave 4 relief move. This means XRP is temporarily recovering from deeply oversold conditions, yet the core market structure still points to one more leg lower before the trend shifts.
Based on the Fibonacci map and wave count, the technical outlook is for XRP to retest familiar resistance levels around $2.00 or $2.09 before the final decline begins.
The most important area in CasiTrades’ outlook is the macro 0.618 support, located close to $1.65. This level aligns across both Coinbase and Binance and sits at the heart of the analyst’s projection for where Wave 5 of the correction should land.
The chart above shows a descending wedge meeting the macro support, along with an RSI trend that has continued building a bullish divergence. These signals suggest that momentum is flattening. However, CasiTrades believes that XRP dipping into the $1.65 region would mark the moment the correction concludes.
The analyst also pointed out that Bitcoin’s chart is moving in harmony with XRP’s structure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has approached its own macro 0.382 retracement but has not fully reached it yet.
The expectation is that XRP’s final leg to $1.65 will occur simultaneously with Bitcoin sliding to a clean $80,000 touch. CasiTrades projects Bitcoin entering its Wave 5 advance into new all-time highs shortly after touching its support.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.02.
Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
