Following Judge Analisa Torres’ June 26 denial of Ripple and the SEC’s joint motion for an indicative ruling, crypto attorney Fred Rispoli has delivered a blistering breakdown of the legal and political dynamics behind the decision—and issued a clear prediction on when the XRP lawsuit may finally conclude.
In his view, the refusal was less about legal deficiency and more about institutional frustration or political motivation. “There are only two reasons for this,” Rispoli argued. “One, she was pissed that the parties wasted 4.5 years of her time with bitter litigation… Two, she is hostile to the Trump administration and will do what she can to throw up obstacles.”
Rispoli’s analysis extended sharply to the SEC’s failure to support the motion with official testimony that could have helped the court reconsider its prior findings of reckless conduct by Ripple. Citing pages 3 and 4 of Torres’ order, Rispoli pointed out that “the ruling parrot[s] back the SEC’s own words of how egregious, dangerous, and reckless the SEC believed Ripple to be and why a $1 BILLION fine was necessary.”
None of that materialized. “This obviously did not happen,” Rispoli said, and offered two possible explanations. “(1) Ripple and the SEC did not discuss this necessity… (2) Ripple did ask and the SEC said, ‘We are not making ourselves look like idiot assholes. This crappy motion on SEC letterhead is the best I can offer.’”
He concluded that the second explanation is most likely, and said the SEC’s institutional behavior remains unchanged. “The SEC is going to do what it has done for decades: protect its own regardless of the administration in charge or detriment to the public.”
That belief fuels Rispoli’s broader frustration with US regulatory governance. “If you ever want to know the types of pieces of shit that sit atop the SEC, type into your browser ‘david aguirre sec whistleblower’ and read up… I sue .gov agencies all the time for despicable behavior… This is the reason I am so invested in crypto—to opt out of our crumbling system.”
Looking ahead, Rispoli remains convinced that a settlement is coming soon. Responding to a reader who asked when the saga might finally end, Rispoli gave two scenarios for the August status update due to the Second Circuit: either the parties ask to resume the appeal, or they declare it settled.
“In that scenario, case doesn’t end until late 2026/early 2027,” he said of a revived appeal. But that’s not the outcome he expects. “I think we see (2) happen and get that announcement end of July/early August of this year.”
As for the implications of the court’s existing injunction against Ripple’s institutional XRP sales, Rispoli minimized its real-world effect. “It doesn’t affect $XRP on the secondary markets nor will it impact XRP ETF approvals,” he explained. While Torres technically retains authority to enforce it, Rispoli added, “The injunction only substantively matters if the SEC wants it to matter.”
He also noted that Ripple appears to be preparing to move forward under mutually tolerable terms. “If you look at the @s_alderoty post on this ruling from today,” Rispoli observed, “he used the term ‘historic institutional sales’ to describe the Torres-determined-bad-behavior. This signals to me that the parties are going to settle and move on with the understanding that XRP sales to institutions will be done in a way the SEC can live with.”
Though Judge Torres’ refusal to accommodate the proposed resolution was a procedural blow, Rispoli believes it will prove to be the final flashpoint in a case that is now headed toward closure. “The parties will drop their appeals, settle at $50M and move on with the injunction in place,” he wrote.
If his forecast is right, the XRP community could be less than six weeks away from the end of one of the most consequential enforcement actions in crypto history.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.099.
