An emerging set of on-chain and market structure signals suggests Dogecoin could be coiling for a fresh advance, according to analytics platform Alphractal, which published a new chart pack and methodology notes on X on August 21. The firm argues that miner resilience, a stable “Network Stress Index,” and model-derived bands such as Alpha Price and CVDD have lined up in a way that historically preceded major DOGE trend accelerations.
At the foundation of the call is a composite gauge the firm calls the Network Stress Index. It blends three dimensions of chain health and pressure—“Fee Stress (fees / market cap – 40% weight), Hash Stress (30-day hash rate volatility – 30% weight), [and] Supply Stress (7-day active supply volatility – 30% weight).”
As Alphractal summarizes the read-through: “Higher values suggest potential instability or major transitions. Lower values reflect a balanced network across economic, security, and activity dimensions.” In the current regime, the firm says the indicator “signals stability — showing no warning signs of network risk.”
Beyond raw network conditions, Alphractal overlays two valuation and cycle tools it says have been reliable for UTXO chains such as DOGE, Bitcoin and Litecoin. “Our Alpha Price model works like a magnetic force for sentiment,” the firm noted, describing a behavioral anchor that price tends to respect over time.
It pairs that with an adjusted version of Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), a metric that tracks the age-weighted value of coins moving on-chain. “Our advanced CVDD adjustment has proven to be one of the most accurate tools for identifying tops and bottoms in UTXO blockchains like DOGE, BTC, and LTC,” Alphractal wrote.
The firm frames miner posture as a reinforcing pillar. With hash rate activity “pushing toward record highs,” the view is that security spend and miner participation leave the network well positioned “for a surge in global demand.” That strength, together with price action clustering near what Alphractal labels True Market Mean Price, is presented as the setup phase that has preceded prior Dogecoin expansions on the attached Network Stress, Alpha Price, and CVDD charts dated August 21.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.218.
