Over the last week, Bitcoin prices have soared significantly under a bullish resurgence, pushing the asset within range of its current all-time high around $124,400. Amidst this euphoria, there have been notable changes in the options trading market, which could spell major implications for BTC’s price trajectory.
For example, volatility readings suggest that traders expect Bitcoin to settle down in the immediate term. The one-week implied volatility (IV ), which is a key measure of expected market swings, fell by about three points from last week’s peak, and the two-week contract dropped by two. However, longer maturities have stayed anchored in the 40–43% range, painting a picture of calm in the near term but much room for uncertainty later in the year. Meanwhile, another significant technical shift appeared in the risk reversals (RR), which measure the skew between call and put demand. The one-week 25-delta RR swung dramatically from an 18.5 vol put premium, indicating strong demand for downside hedging, to a 4 vol call premium, signaling that traders are now paying up for upside protection. Longer maturities also flattened, showing a more balanced risk outlook but reinforcing the short-term bullish tilt.
