On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Golden Cross has surged close to the historical topping zone.
The NVT Ratio tells us about how the market cap of the cryptocurrency compares against its transaction volume. The indicator is based on the idea that the blockchain’s ability to transact coins (as represented by the transfer volume) could be looked at as its fair value.
When the value of the metric is high, it means the value of the asset (that is, the market cap) is high compared to this ability to transact coins. Such a trend can imply that the coin may be overbought.
On the other hand, the indicator being low suggests the market cap could potentially have room to grow with respect to the transaction volume. This kind of trend can imply a rebound to the upside may be due for the cryptocurrency.
Now, the NVT Golden Cross, the actual metric of interest here, is a Bollinger-band like indicator that signals whether the NVT Ratio is close to a top or bottom. The metric works by comparing the short-term trend of the NVT Ratio to its long-term one.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross over the year 2025 so far:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has recently been following a trajectory of rapid growth, implying the market cap has sharply been increasing relative to the transaction volume.
The indicator has now reached a value of 1.98. From the chart, it’s visible that this isn’t too far from the 2.2 level (boundary of red zone). Historically, the indicator crossing above this level has generally signaled overheated conditions for the cryptocurrency.
So far, the pattern has held in 2025 as well, with Bitcoin observing local tops alongside each of the three instances where the NVT Golden Cross breached the 2.2 mark.
“If the metric crosses 2.2 again, it may hint at a local top,” notes the quant. “But don’t rush to exit—historically, the metric has stayed above 2.2 for several days.” It now remains to be seen how BTC and the NVT Golden Cross would develop in the near future.
