One of the world’s most respected quantum computing researchers has sharply pulled forward the perceived timeline for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer – and Bitcoin is suddenly in the crosshairs of the debate.
Crypto voices quickly connected the dots to Bitcoin and other crypto assets. “I am honestly worried for bitcoin. This is an opportunity for Ethereum,” wrote one commentator, while StarkWare co-founder Eli Ben-Sasson replied, “I’m honestly worried for both.” The message: no major chain that relies on classical public-key cryptography is immune to a sufficiently mature quantum adversary.
To anchor expectations, Qureshi pointed to prediction platform Metaculus, where forecasters currently place the first RSA challenge number being factored by Shor’s algorithm around the mid-2030s, with a wide distribution around that date. Notably, that median has moved dramatically in just a few years; in 2022, community expectations were centered a couple of decades later. Progress, in other words, is running ahead of earlier forecasts, but still not on the scale of “next cycle, everything breaks.”
While Pruden acknowledged that it is “notoriously difficult to predict how the development of a quantum computer will play out,” he warned that technologies like quantum computing or AI “often happen not in a linear way, but as a series of breakthroughs.” He added: “Even if it’s only a 1% chance in the next five years, given that it breaks **the fundamental security guarantee which secures assets onchain**, why shouldn’t this be the top priority for every blockchain? Whenever it does happen, it will be the only thing that matters.”
At press time, BTC traded at $91,417.
