“November could be repeating itself where we get a big push in November,” he said, citing what he frames as a recurring pattern of late-October bottoms followed by November reversals in recent years. He pointed to 2022 and 2023 as examples and opened the session by noting ongoing equity optimism, quipping that “the S&P is continuing to gap up,” and that a risk-bid in stocks historically creates favorable conditions for crypto beta.
The analyst is emphatic that the setup is constructive but not a done deal. “There’s probably no big bull run just yet, but it looks bullish from here to at least December.” From there, the branching outcomes hinge on whether an altseason materializes and whether DOGE can break beyond the upper boundary of its channel.
In that downside branch, he cites a drawdown scenario toward the low-teens, saying DOGE could “go back to 13 cents.” In the upside branch, if an altseason ignites, he floats a run toward “80 cents, 90 cents, whatever,” with the caveat that such a surge into December could also mark a local cycle top requiring reassessment in real time.
He analogizes the dynamic to a “blue circle” bounce on the S&P and expects a comparable moving-average response from BTC to keep the crypto risk cycle intact. The Ethereum leg is treated as both a beneficiary of small-cap equity strength and a validator for alt rotation: “If the S&P and the Russell can both push higher, that gives us a green light for Ethereum. And if Ethereum can push higher, then Doge could push higher.”
Timing is central to his thesis. He anticipates a steady “grind” into early November, a push toward DOGE’s channel top “probably in the middle of November,” and then a decisive inflection as the market either confirms altseason into December—or fails and resets with one more flush before any sustained rotation. He also leaves room for a less popular possibility: “We always have to keep our open mind to the possibility that there is no altseason… I’m the last person that wants to say that… but we’ve got to be open to the possibilities.”
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.19372.
