CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn traced the pattern: no fresh issuance on Aug. 3, roughly $18 million on Aug. 10, about $51 million on Aug. 17 — then close to $360 million raised in a single week after the guidance change.
That sharp jump in new capital has drawn scrutiny from market watchers who worry the company is leaning on share issuance to keep buying Bitcoin.
But after they dropped the “no dilution below 2.5x mNAV” promise, $359M was raised by issuing new shares (see tweet below).
If the stock trades at more than four times its mNAV, the company will sell lots of shares to buy more Bitcoin. If it trades between 2.5 and four times, it will sell some shares, but more carefully.
And if the stock drops below 2.5 times, share sales would mostly go toward paying debt or covering dividends instead of buying Bitcoin.
Reports add that if Strategy shares trade under 1x mNAV, the company could borrow to repurchase stock. That framework reversed an earlier pledge not to sell shares for Bitcoin purchases when mNAV was below 2.5x — a reversal that critics point to as the key change.
According to the company’s SEC filing, nearly $310 million came from at-the-market common stock sales at an average share price of $354, plus roughly $47 million from preferred share classes.
In total, the firm raised a little more than $357 million and used the proceeds to buy 3,081 Bitcoin. The purchase pushed its holdings to 632,457 BTC.
That stack of 632,457 coins equals roughly 3% of circulating supply, based on market counts cited in filings and market reports. The company’s public target remains at 1 million coins — a goal that, by the reported figures, is now about 60% complete.
Investors focused on dilution have reason to be worried. Each new share increases the number of claims on the same Bitcoin pool, and when issuance happens while the stock trades at low multiples to mNAV, existing holders see their per-share Bitcoin backing decline.
Reports say Strategy’s debt sits at about 20% of Bitcoin NAV with headroom up to 30%, giving it borrowing room — but choosing to issue equity at low mNAVs still weakens per-share economics.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
