Citing increasing worries about U.S. liquidity conditions and the mounting uncertainty about American tariff plans, noted macroeconomist Lyn Alden lowers Bitcoin forecast year-end prediction down from her previous optimistic one.
Alden, well regarded for her long-term macroeconomic views and data-driven market analysis, disclosed her revised position during a recent Cointelegraph interview. Her measured approach comes at a time when the larger cryptocurrency market is struggling with more volatility, macro headwinds, and increasing geopolitical concerns.
The Dollar Dilemma and Liquidity Crunch
Alden claims that the present U.S. liquidity tightening, which the Federal Reserve’s continuous monetary tightening and the Treasury Department’s continuous short-term debt issuance have helped to cause, has been pushing down risk assets such Bitcoin.
Alden said, “Bitcoin thrives in a liquidity-rich environment, where capital seeks alternative stores of value.” But at the moment, we are in a stage where cash is king once more. Rather than actively entering volatile assets like crypto, institutions are putting money in Treasury bills and money market accounts.
The surging U.S. dollar adds to the strain since it usually puts negative pressure on anything priced in USD, including Bitcoin. A higher dollar lowers foreign demand for BTC and other cryptocurrencies, particularly in developing countries where local currencies are devaluing.
Tensions on Tariffs Disturb the Market
Alden also highlighted the reappearance of U.S. tariff talk under President Donald Trump’s second term, which has revived worries about global trade disturbances. Stirring worries of a worldwide downturn and more affecting market mood, the administration has suggested a new wave of tariffs on European industrial products and Chinese electronics.
Alden said, “Protectionist policies could lead to retaliatory measures, slowing global growth and increasing market uncertainty.” “That might postpone risk-on attitude and limit Bitcoin’s near-term upside.”
The reinstatement of tariffs and the potential of trade wars lower cross-border money flows, which are typically vital for crypto’s momentum. Market analysts say that if world economic tensions rise, investors would choose more stable safe-haven assets like gold or government bonds over high-volatility trades like Bitcoin.
Target Cut Year-End
Given these difficulties, Alden changed her year-end Bitcoin goal from $125,000 to $92,000. Although still hopeful in the long run, she underlined that, particularly if liquidity stays tight and inflationary pressures come back, Bitcoin’s short-term price performance could stay range bound.
She is yet cautiously optimistic for the medium to long future, though. “In a world of fiat uncertainty, Bitcoin still has a strong value proposition and strong fundamentals,” she remarked. Timing is important, though; the present macro environment is not perfect for forceful upward momentum.
A Historical Comparison: 2003–2007
Alden contrasted the present macroeconomic setting with the early 2000s, a time characterised by a declining dollar and somewhat lax fiscal policy. During that time, emerging markets and gold among other alternative assets beat conventional equities.
“Bitcoin could enter a new bullish phase akin to what we saw with commodities in the 2003-2007 cycle if we start to see a pivot in U.S. monetary policy—perhaps later this year or in early 2026,” she said.
Response from the Community
The cryptocurrency community has reacted with conflicting feelings. While some investors believe Alden’s updated projection is a reasonable reaction to economic reality, others fear it portends the end of Bitcoin’s present cycle. Prominent crypto critic Alex Krüger tweeted, “Lyn Alden asking for prudence is an indication we’re no longer in euphoria. Perhaps that’s an excellent idea.
What Comes Next?
All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and world trade events as global markets absorb changing policy stories. Although Alden’s perspective is more cautious, it is based in macro realism; in a market as erratic as cryptocurrency, careful research might be more useful than unrestrained excitement.
