In a July 2 research note, Kendrick forecasted that ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases will exceed the second-quarter levels of 245,000 BTC in both the third and fourth quarters.
According to Kendrick:
“ETF inflows and corporate treasury flows are all US policy-linked.”
The note also addressed market worries about Bitcoin’s halving cycle, a scheduled event every four years that cuts mining rewards in half and historically influences price patterns.
Kendrick explained that in previous cycles, Bitcoin prices have fallen about 18 months after a halving, which would imply potential declines around September or October of this year based on the April 2024 halving.
However, Standard Chartered believes that the dynamic has changed. Kendrick wrote that thanks to strong ETF inflows and corporate treasury buying, factors that were absent in earlier cycles, Bitcoin may avoid the typical post-halving decline.
He said price is likely to be volatile in late September and early October as markets focus on this historical pattern, but forecasted that the uptrend will resume at year-end, driven by these new structural demand factors.
Kendrick concluded that the coming months will demonstrate how Bitcoin has moved beyond its previous halving cycle behaviour, summarising his outlook simply:
“Buckle up.”
