Strategy’s debt is mostly in convertible senior notes that carry a holder put right dated Sept. 15, 2027. Based on Woo’s calculations, Strategy would need its stock to trade above $183 around that date to avoid selling Bitcoin to meet obligations.
MSTR liquidation in the next bear market? I doubt it,
Strategy’s share price closed at $246.99, a seven-month low, down nearly 6.7% on the reported day. Bitcoin was trading at $102,004, down 9% over the past seven days, Coingecko data shows.
Other public forecasts remain far more bullish: ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have both mentioned targets as high as $1,000,000 for BTC by 2030.
However, that linkage also ties Strategy’s fate more tightly to investor appetite for a stock that mirrors Bitcoin’s movement.
Strategy looks broadly protected against a typical bear market. Yet the math shows a clear cut point: about $1 billion in debt comes due by the holder put date mentioned above.
If Bitcoin and MSTR equity both underperform for an extended period, adjustments may be needed. For now, major analysts say liquidation is unlikely in the next downturn, but they also flag 2028 as a critical year for whether any sales become necessary.
Featured image from Outside Bozeman, chart from TradingView
