Speculation is heating up in crypto circles as betting markets Polymarket surged on the possibility that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could receive a presidential pardon from Donald Trump.
Following Trump’s surprise pardon of Binance founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, odds on prediction platform Polymarket for an SBF pardon skyrocketed from 5.6% to over 12% within 12 hours, with total wagers surpassing $66,339 in Volume.
Bankman-Fried, currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud and conspiracy, is appealing his conviction, but analysts suggest no ruling is likely before the end of the year. That makes a presidential pardon his only realistic path to early release.
The surge in betting odds came shortly after Trump pardoned CZ, who had served four months for Anti-Money Laundering violations. Trump claimed Zhao was “persecuted by the Biden administration” and that his actions were “not even a crime.”
Similarly, attorney Jake Chervinsky said he would be “truly shocked” if Trump granted Bankman-Fried clemency, citing his role as a “Democratic mega-donor” and the political optics surrounding FTX’s collapse.
Reports suggest that SBF and his family are quietly lobbying for leniency, with his parents reaching out to figures close to Trump. He has also made appearances on conservative media platforms, attempting to recast himself as a victim of political bias.
However, unlike CZ, who has close ties to Trump’s circle through the World Liberty Financial crypto venture, Bankman-Fried lacks direct political connections. Experts believe that makes his chances of a pardon slim despite rising Polymarket odds.
Nonetheless, the renewed speculation shows how Trump’s pro-crypto gestures are molding the narrative around justice and power in digital finance.
Cover image from ChatGPT, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview
